Post-holiday purchases start strong corn prices

In the first week after the Spring Festival holiday, purchases and sales in the domestic corn market started one after another. In the overall situation that the decrease in South American production led to a tighter supply and demand pattern in the global corn market, domestic farmers in the northeastern region reluctantly sold goods, feed consumption began to recover, and deep processing demand gradually recovered. The factors that led to the stable spot price of corn and the market to corn The price is expected to rise.

Spot market rose slightly in the short term

At present, most traders in Northeast China have resumed their acquisitions, but due to holiday factors, farmers’ enthusiasm for selling grain is low. Deep processing companies purchase grain sources mainly from traders, and purchases are limited. The current sale price of corn in the Dalian market in Liaoning is 2,380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Heilongjiang Shuangchengchang local traders in the purchase price of medium corn 1720 ~ 1740 yuan / ton, moisture 24% to 25%, unchanged from pre-holiday. The purchase price of a large deep-processing enterprise in Jilin Meihekou was 2,130 yuan/ton, and the water content was 14%, which was the same as that before the holiday. Local traders in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, purchased corn at a price of 1880 yuan per ton for 25% water, and converted the price of standard corn to 2,160 yuan per ton (excluding drying costs) at a ratio of 1:1.2. The price was temporarily stable.

Spot sales in the North China production areas have slightly recovered, but most farmers have not yet started sales after the holiday. During the Spring Festival, deep-processing enterprises in North China mostly consumed depletion stocks. Decline in raw materials inventory after the holiday led to strong demand for corn. Recently, corn prices in North China continued to rise. As a whole, at present, the progress of grain sales in North China is lagging behind that of previous years, and there are many grass-roots grain resources. The centralized listing in the latter period may bring pressure on the market supply, and the price increase may be inhibited.

Shandong Zaozhuang Market Currently, a large corn deep-processing company purchases the latest price of standard corn at 2,364 yuan/ton, which is the same as before the holiday. The purchase price of corn by local small and medium-sized traders in the Zhangjiakou market in Hebei Province was 2,080 yuan/ton, which was slightly higher by 20 yuan/ton than before the holiday. Pei County, Jiangsu market above the medium quality standards of corn, water about 16%, the local traders listed purchase price of 2200 ~ 2240 yuan / ton, the price is flat with the pre-holiday, acquisitions are limited.

In recent days, the flats and acquisition prices of the northern ports have basically risen by RMB 20 per ton before the holiday, which is mainly due to the limited grain resources, port inventory consumption, and the market’s bullish attitude towards the post-corn prices. However, the actual price of goods taken by the northern ports remained basically unchanged from the previous year. Although the arrivals of Guangdong ports have increased significantly before the holiday, due to the continued procurement activities of some small and medium-sized feed enterprises in the south, port inventories consume faster. In addition, the arrival of ports in Guangxi and Fujian and other places is relatively small, which to a certain extent supports the increase in the price of the southern ports.

After the Lantern Festival, the sales activities of farmers will gradually start, and the market corn supply will also begin to increase. On the other hand, some grain companies have started to replenish their stocks, and the gradual entry of the State Reserve Bank will also become the focus of the market. From the perspective of both supply and demand, the market supply has increased and demand has been synchronised with it. It is expected that the short-term corn spot market will remain stable and firm, and the market trend will depend on the further game between supply and demand.

Futures market is expected to continue strong

After the Spring Festival, the price of domestic corn continued its pre-holiday strong trend, and it even received six Yang Xian. After a slight adjustment two days later, the price of corn increased again in Masukura on February 3, breaking through the pressure of 2,350 yuan/ton, and the market did more atmosphere. Continuation. The price increase in this round of the corn market was mainly caused by the prolonged drought in South America leading to a reduction in Argentine corn production. The accelerated pace of grain sales in the northeastern production areas led to increased psychological reluctance for farmers and the expected improvement in downstream demand.

Argentine corn cuts production. Affected by the La Niña phenomenon, the main maize producing areas of Argentina experienced a long period of hot and dry weather, which has affected the pollination of maize, resulting in shortening of the maize flowering period and causing irreparable damage to the yield. As a result, agencies have lowered their 2012 Argentine corn production. The Rosarios Corn Exchange in Argentina reduced its 2011/2012 corn production forecast by nearly 18% to approximately 21.4 million tons. Argentina is the world’s second-largest corn exporter. The sharp reduction in corn production in the country has led to the collapse of Argentina’s plans to replenish global corn stocks in the US in the context of reduced production. The pattern of global corn supply and demand is further tightened, and corn prices will regain momentum.

The peasants reluctantly sold their goods. The Spring Festival in 2012 was earlier than in previous years. Feed enterprises in the South started to stock up in late December 2011. Feed enterprises in the Northeast and North China and Huanghuai regions also added stock at the end of the year. However, in North China, from the eve of the harvest to the rain in early December, Not only has the farmer's grain sales been postponed, but also the local corn has high water content, and companies are unable to make large reserves of local corn. Therefore, Northeast corn has become a source of food for all parties. At present, more than half of the corn in Northeast China has been sold, further stimulating farmers' reluctance to sell goods. Coupled with the expected improvement in demand in the later period, the price of corn in the northeast producing areas is expected to further increase.

Pig feed demand picked up. In the autumn of 2011, pigs are in the period of concentrated breeding, and a new round of sow concentration will begin in the first quarter of 2012. In addition, the temperature in the south will gradually increase and the survival rate of piglets will also increase compared to the previous period. Under such circumstances, the supply of piglets will increase. With seasonal growth, a new round of piglet restocking is expected to be launched in phases in March and March. This will lead to a rebound in the consumption of suckling pig feed. With the passage of time, the entire feed demand will also increase steadily.

The deep processing and consumption of corn will pick up. The price of corn starch in domestic production and sales regions has been raised recently. The ex-factory price of Changchun and Shenyang starch is generally at 2,850 yuan/ton, which is 50 to 100 yuan/ton higher than before the holiday, and the ex-factory price of Shandong starch has risen by 50 yuan/ton. The rise in the price of starch has strengthened the willingness of deep-processing companies to supplement corn stocks. In addition, due to the increase in starch sugar in 2011 is much lower than sucrose, starch sugar will have greater price advantage in 2012, once the full consumption of starch sugar, will drive the entire corn deep processing demand out of the current low.

In summary, Argentina’s production cuts have further tightened the pattern of global corn supply and demand. The progress of grain sales in northeastern China has accelerated the peasants’ reluctant sellers’ mentality. In the first quarter, the concentration of feedstuffs for piglets led to a steady rise in feed demand, and the overall increase in the price of starch has led to deep processing and consumption of corn. Gradually, with the above four factors working together, corn prices are expected to remain strong. Zong and <br> <br> Links

On February 12th, part of the corn market price in Guangdong port: The price of new national standard second-class corn, with a moisture content of about 15%, was 2485 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the previous day and the volume was light. It is understood that at present, the port stocks are 250,000 tons, and the enthusiasm for procurement by feed enterprises and traders around the port is not high, because the current price rises too fast and the feed companies have completed restocking in the previous period, and they arrived 180,000 tons last week.

Bayuquan Port: The mainstream price of corn within 15% of the purchase of water was 2,350 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of individual impetuses for shipping traders rose by 10 yuan/ton. It is understood that at present, the port has a daily volume of about 6,000 tons, and the main source of grain is Heilongjiang and Jilin corn.

Xingtai, Hebei: Local small and medium-sized traders purchased corn at a price of 2130 yuan per ton within 15% of water, which was converted into standard corn at 2,150 yuan per ton. It is understood that local traders have higher enthusiasm for buying and selling after the year. In addition to being sent to local feed companies, some other grain sources are sent to Changle, Shandong, etc. Traders tend to follow suit.

Chengdu, Sichuan: Chengdu Daxie County's local purchase price is 1.18 yuan/kg, and its moisture content is 15% or less, and the price is unchanged from last week. It is reported that local small feed enterprises mainly purchase local corn and corn from northeastern China, and prices remain stable.