Analysis of the impact of the 2016 medical reform focus on the medical service market

Recently, the State Council executive meeting of the State Council has determined the focus of the 2016 medical reform, including the expansion of the city's public hospital comprehensive reform pilot cities from 100 to 200. About 70% of the country's cities and towns carry out pilot programs for grading diagnosis and treatment, and carry out the practice of public hospitals or retired doctors to the grassroots medical institutions or set up studio pilots. The future impact on the medical services market includes several aspects.

As the scope of the pilot expands, the expansion of public hospitals will become more difficult. In the past few years, the new branch of the big hospital may have a big business crisis in the future. In particular, for newly-joined cities, they will face the loss of a portion of their pharmaceutical revenues, which will be subject to more stringent supervision and will be a test of their operational capabilities. However, some of the new branches are not able to meet the expected service volume, but the scale and capital investment in the previous period have been large, the service volume is not enough to support such a large scale, plus the income reduced after the pilot, the operating pressure of the branch. It will be very big, and among them, there may be opportunities for private capital acquisition. This can also be seen in many places, including the sale of some large cities in the branch and the introduction of private capital. As the scope of the pilot expands, this trend will continue and accelerate in the future.

The key points of the reform include: piloting grading clinics in about 70% of the country's cities and towns, and conducting public hospitals or retired doctors or doctors to practice in grassroots medical institutions or to open studios. If the pilot can be carried out smoothly, it will be beneficial to the community-based health center, which is a well-developed grassroots institution in the city in recent years. Due to government support and better foundations in some cities, community health centers are the fastest growing of all types of basic medical institutions, with the number of daily visits increasing from 183 in 2010 to 225 in 2014. The attending doctor's consultation may be more attractive in some specialties, and can help the elderly and chronic patients in the community to solve some practical problems. However, due to the limitations of the drug list at the grassroots level, lack of medicine is still a fatal weakness. Even if there is a diagnosis given by the attending doctor, it will cause great trouble to the patient without the medicine.

In the 2016 reform focus, it is clearly stated that patients can choose to purchase medicines at hospitals or retail pharmacies. For the grassroots institutions, the attending doctor's consultation is conducive to bringing the number of patients. Because of the zero-addition of the primary drug in the pilot area, the grassroots institution itself cannot make money on the prescription, so there is no problem of prescription outflow. The amount of patients brought by the consultation and the possible follow-up services, coupled with the possibility that the patient may continue to choose the grassroots, will be the driving force for their service. So in this case, working with retailers to get medicines may be a breakthrough.

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